From January to February 2022, the total amount of social logistics in my country was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level in 2019 before the epidemic , indicating that the overall logistics demand is still in the recovery channel, and the logistics operation has started smoothly.
From a structural point of view, internally, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continues to appear, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics maintains rapid growth; externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal levels, and the demand for imported logistics continues to fall.
The demand for industrial logistics is growing rapidly, and the new kinetic energy continues to strengthen
After the festival, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained rapid growth. From January to February, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate in 2020-2021.
From a structural point of view, the new kinetic energy continues to exert force, and its role in supporting the demand for industrial logistics has increased. The high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry continued to grow rapidly. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries increased by 14.4% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was 2.3% and 3.4% faster than that in December last year. percent.
In terms of industries, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrumentation manufacturing all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rates all accelerated month-on-month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that in December last year. In particular, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow at a high speed on the basis of the previous year's double growth.
The recovery of people's livelihood consumer logistics demand is accelerating, and new formats continue to develop
From January to February, driven by online promotion factors such as the "Online New Year's Shopping Festival", the logistics demand for consumer goods manufacturing at the production end has accelerated, and the demand for logistics such as e-commerce and online shopping at the sales end has not diminished. From the perspective of production, the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry is accelerating. From January to February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, which is 5.2 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate in 2020-2021.
From the point of view of the sales side, the boosting effect of the new business format is still obvious. From January to February, the total logistics volume of units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year. The commercial logistics business volume increased by more than 25% year-on-year, and the rural business volume also increased by nearly 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Import price increment falls, logistics demand continues to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international bulk commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on my country's related imports. Data show that from January to February, the volume of imported logistics fell by 3.5% year-on-year, falling for five consecutive months. However, we must also see that since the beginning of this year, the decline in import logistics has narrowed from the previous month. With the gradual recovery of my country's economy and supply chain in the future, the scale of imports will also expand.
From the point of view of import structure, due to factors such as the sharp rise in prices of bulk commodities, the import volume of crude oil, coal and lignite, and steel products all decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, 14.0%, and 7.9% respectively; meat imports among agricultural products Demand maintained a downward trend, down 33% year-on-year.
The scale of the logistics market expands and the industry accelerates integration
The scale of the logistics market continued to expand, and industry integration accelerated. Since 2021, the market size of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of the total revenue of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, faster than the level in 2019 before the epidemic.
With the development and growth of new drivers, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services. Especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has accelerated significantly, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The revenue share of my country's top 50 logistics companies has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industry concentration has steadily increased. In subdivided fields such as express delivery, leading companies have further promoted industry concentration through mergers and reorganizations. According to data from the *** Post Office, the brand concentration index CR8 of express delivery and parcel services from January to February was 85.3, which is a significant increase compared with the whole year of 2021 and the same period.
The transportation business grew rapidly, and the operation of logistics enterprises was more efficient. From the perspective of physical volume, the freight volume of the whole society in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which the road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business index in February did not fall but rose, and the index rebounded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by factors such as the resumption of work and production, the physical volume of the logistics industry and the business volume of enterprises have maintained a good growth trend. At the same time, logistics has maintained a relatively efficient operation efficiency. In February, the capital turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry prosperity index both rebounded by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises have actively improved the efficiency of capital use and the timeliness of logistics equipment operations. The tight balance between the supply and demand of personnel in two months has played a certain role in regulating.
On the whole, the macro economy continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand remained at a relatively good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index were 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, both higher than the previous month. It shows that logistics companies have good expectations for the development of the industry.
But we must also see that since March, factors of instability and uncertainty have increased, and it has become more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some regions is still continuing, and the development levels of various industries and regions are uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still continuing, which may lead to poor cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, tight transport capacity, rising freight rates, and supply chain shocks. The pressure to maintain supply and stabilize prices of key commodities requires follow-up analysis and close attention.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics companies are rising, and the pressure of rising raw material and labor costs has increased. The foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated:
First, the linkage between logistics service price and cost is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continued to rise, the price of logistics services did not see a significant increase. The service price index in the logistics industry prosperity index in February did not rise but fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the prices of road logistics and coastal bulk freight fell month-on-month, showing that under the background of the current homogeneous competition in freight services, the bargaining power of the industry is low, and the cost and There is a certain lag in the price linkage of logistics services.
Second, the profitability of the industry is under further pressure. Key survey data show that the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises from January to February increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating income was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and was significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, due to factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortages, fuel costs and labor costs have risen by more than double digits. In terms of profitability, nearly 30% of key logistics companies lost money from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics companies has increased, leading to further compression of profit margins. The overall revenue profit margin was around 3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. Among them, the damage to small, medium and micro logistics enterprises is more obvious. The profit margin of small and micro logistics enterprises is less than 3%, which is lower than that of the same period last year, and there is a big gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.